Daily NASCAR

It’s now been eight races, since Steve Addington gave up the reins of the #18 team to Dave Rogers. In that time, Kyle Busch has not done a whole lot. And while the season is still young, and Busch’s and Roger’s Cup partnership is still relatively new, I have to wonder if Kyle isn’t beginning to have regrets about letting Addington get away.

Dave Rogers took over last November in Texas. Since that time Busch has scored two top-ten finishes; a respectable eighth at Homestead and ninth yesterday at Bristol. His average 13.5 finish is better than last season as a whole, but looking at this time last year, Busch had already scored a win and two top-fives.

For his part, Steve Addington, who joined Kyle’s brother Kurt this season, guided Kyle to 12 wins, 26 top-fives, 33 top-tens and three poles in 2008 and 2009. So far, in his first five races with the #2 team, he has racked up one win, two top-fives, three top tens and one pole with Kurt Busch.

While the two brothers only sit three positions apart in the points, they seem to be worlds apart in the momentum they have started the season with. Kyle has consistently run in the middle of the pack and through the first five races of this season only led 66 of 1,566 laps completed. Compare that to Kurt Busch’s 441.

Certainly there are other things one could factor into the success of these two drivers, but the one thing that binds the two and that marks the major change in both organizations is Steve Addington.

While it’s easy to be a Monday morning quarterback (or crew chief if you prefer) on these things, the fact of the matter is, he’s proven he is effective with more than one driver.

Stepping away for just a moment, it’s been well documented that Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus were at odds at the end of the 2005 season. A come to Jesus meeting with Rick Hendrick helped work out their issues. Since then, they’ve become an unstoppable force in the sport.

I wonder if this sort of thing was tried at Joe Gibbs Racing. Despite the troubles they had last season, it’s hard, in my mind at least, to justify booting the guy who led your team to 12 wins, out the door. Perhaps a meeting would have helped smooth over some of the tensions at JGR. Unfortunately we’ll never know.

Hopefully though this will serve as a lesson to Kyle and to JGR to not be so quick to get rid of the one who ‘brung ya.’ It’ll be interesting to see how the #18 team reacts to their situation and whether they can keep Kyle a dominate force within the sport. Only time will tell.

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Yes, yes, yes, there have been only three races and there are 33 more.

The available evidence, however limited, is that very little has changed in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. Jimmie Johnson’s already won twice. The surprises of Daytona have predictably faded back to obscurity. Attendance is still down, and, for more than three months, Danica Patrick isn’t going to be around to hype and magnify.

Surprises? What surprises?

Kevin Harvick won the Budweiser Shootout? He did that last year. Jamie McMurray won the Daytona 500? He won the previous restrictor-plate race, too. Johnson winning two in a row? Oh, that’s only happened seven times since the Era of Jimmie began in 2002.

Hendrick Motorsports is on top. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is at the bottom of the top. Gibbs and Roush Fenway are in merry, if so far insubstantial, pursuit. Juan Montoya hasn’t won. He and McMurray are squabbling. No one’s seen Teresa Earnhardt. Nothing kills the momentum of Daytona like the apparent apathy of Southern California.

The season has seen one legitimate surprise to date. Richard Childress Racing has improved, throughout and across the board. That’s significant.

Richard shouldn’t ever have tried to run four Chevys in the first place.

It’s time for someone to step up. Gordon tried to close the deal but didn’t have the rubber. Harvick has finished second in the last two races, which would seem more significant if Johnson hadn’t finished first in both.

Tony Stewart! Carl Edwards! Matt Kenseth! Yes, Junior, by gosh! Montoya! Kasey Kahne! Denny Hamlin! Joey Logano! Somebody! Anybody!

Nothing against Johnson and Chad Knaus, but that story’s getting old. I mean, I’ll keep writing it. I’ve got it down. Johnson, Knaus and Rick Hendrick don’t actually say the same things after each victory, but it sure seems that way sometimes.

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Jimmie Johnson isn’t going to win the remaining 33 races. At the moment, it just seems that way.

If this is an average year, Johnson’s going to win six. He’s going to finish second in the Sprint Cup point standings. (That’s actually his average, though the past four years have obscured that a bit.)

Where numbers are concerned, there’s always the statistical quandary. Since Johnson has won the past four titles, does that mean he’s bound to win another? Or does it mean he’s overdue for a fall? Is the law of averages set? Or does it still have some catching up to do?

What we do know, three races into the season, is that whoever’s going to beat Johnson is going to have to obey all the announcers’ clichés. He’s going to have to strap himself in tight, get up on the wheel, turn up the wick and set sail for the front.

That makes it seem so easy.

It’s not. We know that, three races into the season or not. Johnson and the state-of-the-art crew chief, Chad Knaus, are not going to get complacent.

"I don’t know if it’s just our makeup or mindset, what it is," said Johnson after career victory No. 49. "If you get off to a quick start, I think we’re both sitting here, even though we haven’t talked about it, we can’t sit still, complacency is going to kill you.

"We’re looking forward to going to Atlanta with new ideas and new things. … We don’t feel invincible, though. … I feel very good about things. But invincible? Far from that."

Johnson’s just fifth in the points. Guess what? From now through the race scheduled for Sept. 11 in Richmond, Va., he only has to be 12th. Then it starts all over. If Johnson is 12th then - and, by the way, he won’t be that far down the list - he’ll still be the favorite, and that’s the way it’s going to be until someone else comes along to prove Johnson can be beaten.

Three races into the season, it’s encouraging for point leader Kevin Harvick, but it’s no more or no less than business as usual for reigning champion Jimmie Johnson.

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All the fans who are tired of Jimmie Johnson spent Sunday night gnashing teeth again.

What these fans mainly dislike about Johnson is his pesky habit of winning quite often, which is not normally a term of derision in the professional realm of racers.

It’s remarkable how often knowledgeable fans use the terms "normal" and "average" in regard to Johnson. Specifically, they write that he’s "just an average driver" who has won a record four consecutive championships and twice as many races as anyone else over the span of his Sprint Cup career, which began in 2002.

To justify this seemingly absurd description, the fans either credit (a.) Chad Knaus as being a crew chief capable putting your maiden Aunt Bertha in the Chase, or (b.) luck akin to one person winning the Powerball jackpot twice in the same week. Sometimes (a.) is "Knaus is a cheater" and occasionally it’s "NASCAR lets Knaus cheat."

Luck played a role in the 48th victory of Johnson’s illustrious career. This should come as no surprise since Johnson drives No. 48. The stars lined up when he was on pit road and Brad Keselowski’s Dodge chose precisely the right time, from Johnson’s perspective, to spin into the grass on the Auto Club Speedway front straight.

Thus, Johnson took the lead. But he had to hold it, and Kevin Harvick, another Californian racing in California, tracked him down. It was at the point where Harvick caught Johnson that Johnson demonstrated the difference that sets him apart.

Harvick made a mistake, brushing the wall at the point where the bumper of Johnson’s Chevrolet was inches away. Johnson didn’t make a mistake. Hence … Johnson won the race.

Seneca was a Roman dramatist, philosopher and politician, but he was centuries ahead of his time in analyzing NASCAR. Perhaps he hung out at the chariot races. It was Seneca who apparently first said, or wrote, "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." It perhaps should be added that he undoubtedly said or wrote it in Latin, since English didn’t exist in its present form and People Actually Spoke Latin!

Preparation meets opportunity a lot with Johnson, though that’s not the way his detractors usually phrase it.

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by Holly Cain

Filed under: Crew Chiefs

Chad Knaus, crew chief of the No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet driven by Jimmie Johnson, will join AOL FanHouse for a chat on Wednesday night at 7:30PM ET live from Daytona International Speedway.

Don’t miss this rare opportunity to ask questions of Knaus, the four-time defending NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship crew chief as he prepares the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team for the Feb. 14 season-opening Daytona 500 and a quest for an unprecedented fifth consecutive Cup title.

You can catch a behind-the-scenes look at Knaus, Johnson and the whole team on Tuesday, Feb 9 at 10PM ET/PT in the third installment of HBO Sports’ documentary, “24/7 Jimmie Johnson: Race to Daytona.”

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