Daily NASCAR

photo: John Clark/NASCAR This Week

HAMPTON, Ga. - The skies are clear, the weather is warming and Dale Earnhardt Jr. is starting the Kobalt Tools 500 on the pole.

One effect is that Atlanta Motor Speedway is expecting some walk-up ticket sales that might have seemed likely until Earnhardt, stardom’s prodigal son, lapped the 1.54-mile track at 192.761 mph on Friday.

"A lot of things can change over a period of time, and we’ve seen race teams completely change their identity, almost, in off-seasons before," said a hopeful Earnhardt. "I hope that’s what we’ve been able to do. Hopefully, that off-season and the changes we made are definitely what we needed."

After finishing a fast-closing second in the Daytona 500, Earnhardt was one of many drivers who thudded back to earth in the succeeding races in Fontana, Calif., and Las Vegas, Nev., finishing 32nd and 16th, respectively. The Kobalt Tools 500 marks the third consecutive race the intermediate tracks that serve as the foundation of the Sprint Cup schedule.

"It’s just a matter of time," said Earnhardt. "If we keep performing like this (i.e., winning the pole), it should start leaking over on our performance on Sunday, and we can get to where we want to be as a race team. We’ve made a lot of changes. We tried to make the right ones in the off-season. We tried to sort of forget about what happened last year and try to come into this season with a renewed sense of confidence, and you try to get rid of the bugs from the year before, and it really has a lot to do with how confident you are in what you’re getting ready to do."

"We just got beat down last year, and we figured we would have a chance to start new this year. It’s just a better race team, and they’re working really well together, and they are a really good group of guys and I just hope that we can have some success because they deserve it."

The goal is to build on the promise of qualifying and run well from beginning to end of a 500-mile race.

"Every race is sort of different in how it goes," said Earnhardt. "When people say there are teams or players that are the total package, or whatever, that’s just really where we’ve got to go as a team. We’re not the total package. We’ll either hit on it, or we’ll try our tail’s off to make it happen.

"We’ll either do it … or we won’t."
 

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Dale Earnhardt Jr. had the 10th fastest car during Friday’s practice at Atlanta Motor Speedway, but managed to secure the pole later in the day for today’s Kobalt Tools 500. (Photo: Getty Image)

HAMPTON, Ga. - How much of NASCAR’s slump is directly attributable to Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s?

It would be pretty unfair to saddle Earnhardt - who is, after all, doing his best - with blame. It would also be unfair for NASCAR to intervene in his behalf. Should NASCAR be so inclined, it would be hard to do since there are so many eyes watching closely.

As NASCAR frets about attendance and ratings that have peaked and drifted downward in recent years - not to mention profits, stock price and budgets - it has to be more than coincidence that the slump coincides with hard times in Junior Nation.

From 2000 through 2004, Earnhardt won 15 races. In the five seasons since, he’s won three. In the past three, he’s won one.

It was a shock to the Nation’s system that Earnhardt jumped to the Sprint Cup Series’ best team, Hendrick Motorsports, in 2008. Many of Earnhardt’s fans had previously cultivated a certain enmity toward the Team of Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. Dutifully, they set their differences aside. They accepted their hero’s decision to move his rear to the best seat in NASCAR.

And … nothing much happened, which, understandably, was a major bummer.

Many fans cite a growing, general indifference. Some happen to be wearing Earnhardt Jr. gear as they discuss it. They gripe about the racing not being as good, about the cars all looking alike … in fact, "alike" is a broadly used term of derision. Many NASCAR fans - or, to cite oft-used words, "former NASCAR fans" - think the cars are too much alike, the tracks too much alike and the drivers too much alike.

But what many of them have against, say, Kyle Busch - who isn’t "just alike" with anyone else in history - is that he isn’t Dale Earnhardt Jr.

This isn’t to say that all the other complaints don’t have validity. It’s to say that they might not be as apparent, or seem quite so important, if the preeminent driver in terms of popularity weren’t struggling.

It’s entirely possible that some eyes that might not be watching otherwise - particularly in the comfort of their living rooms - will be watching today, in large part because Dale Earnhardt Jr. is starting on the pole.

Inquiring minds want to see if he can win again, and to borrow from the lexicon of military commanders, the situation on the ground is starting to look promising again.

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Hmm, and Jimmie Johnson’s Chevy is carrying what paint scheme, exactly? Kobalt Tools 500.

Where it’s a tad chilly, but, thank goodness, the skies are clear: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Hampton, Ga.

Big guns: Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Mark Martin, Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne.

Long shots: Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, Jeff Burton, Ryan Newman, Martin Truex Jr., Brian Vickers, Elliott Sadler, David Reutimann, Jamie McMurray, Scott Speed, David Ragan, Brad Keselowski, Marcos Ambrose and A.J. Allmendinger.

The hunch here: Kyle Busch.

Just the facts, please

- Though this track was reshaped and reversed (the front straight) in 1997, its distance changed only slightly: from 1.522 to 1.54 miles. Originally named Atlanta International Raceway, the name was changed to Atlanta Motor Speedway in 1990.

- The track opened in 1960. Fireball Roberts both won and started on the pole in the first race.

- The all-time leading winner is Dale Earnhardt, who won here nine times. Cale Yarborough won seven. Richard Petty and Bobby Labonte are tied with six career victories.

-The most recent driver to win here after starting on the pole was Kasey Kahne in 2006.

- Though Geoff Bodine’s track record still stands (197.478 mph, Nov. 15, 1997), Earnhardt Jr.’s pole speed (192.761) was significantly higher than last year’s (Mark Martin, 187.045). It was the fastest qualifying speed at any track since the generic car was implemented.

- Bill Elliott has won more Cup races (44) than any other driver from Georgia. Five of the wins were here.

Snappy quotes

"This has been a really, really slick race track for a long time." - Jeff Burton.

"Forty is the new 30, anyway. That’s what I’m going with." - David Reutimann, who turned 40 on March 2.

"If I thought we’re softening up the competition in some way, shape, or form, it would be foolish on our part." - Jimmie Johnson.

"We might be in the top 10, but we’re not running as well as we need to be running." - Carl Edwards.

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Relax, Ryan. You don’t have to push that red button just yet. (Photo: Getty Images)

HAMPTON, Ga. - Remain calm. All is well.

That’s the gospel being preached by those for whom the first three Sprint Cup races have not gone so well. Their words are strung together by lots of "ifs," "ands" and "buts."

They’re right, of course. The Kobalt Tools 500, at Atlanta Motor Speedway on Sunday, is only the season’s four Sprint Cup race. A year ago at this point, Bobby Labonte was 10th in points.

Here’s what gets lost by those who prematurely panic. From now through the season’s 26th race, the point system governing the strategy in Cup isn’t one designed to be in first place. First place doesn’t matter until the Chase. The regular season is about being 12th because the top 12 make the Chase.

So, in other words, the standings list Ryan Newman as being in 32nd place, 281 points behind leader Kevin Harvick. That’s a lot, even now. Kyle Busch is in 12th place. Newman’s only 150 points behind him.

"I think it’s real early to be talking about a comeback," said Newman.

Jeff Gordon is two points out of 12th. Jamie McMurray trails Busch by 13. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is 18 shy of the top 12.

Oh, my gosh. That means that, over the next 23 races, Jeff Gordon won’t make the Chase unless he can keep up a pace of gaining .087 of a point in each and every race. OK, that’s a joke, but for 32nd place Ryan Newman, the math says he can make the Chase if he gains an average of 6.6 points on 12th place, whomever happens to occupy it at any given time.

They hand out five points for leading one lap under caution.

Drivers don’t like to get off to a slow start. Their fans don’t like to see it.

However … a year ago at this point, Newman, who is now 32nd, was 33rd. He made the Chase.

"We rebounded pretty quickly last year," he recalled. "I don’t know when we were first in the top 12 after being 33rd three races in. (He reached the top 12 after the 10th race). I know there’s plenty of potential, and there’s a lot of the season left.

"The law of averages works out for everybody except Jimmie Johnson."

The winner of four straight championships is apparently above the law.

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Ricky Carmichael, driver of the No. 4. Monster Energy Chevrolet, is a former Supercross champ who’s making the crossover to trucks competition. (Photo: Gett Images)

HAMPTON, Ga. — Having established himself already as one of the best ever to race on two wheels, Ricky Carmichael is well into his second motorsports career.

Though still looking for his first victory in the Camping World Truck Series, Carmichael, 30, was last year’s Most Popular Driver in trucks. Some of his former Supercross fans invariably follow him to venues like Atlanta Motor Speedway, where the Atlanta 200 is scheduled for Saturday afternoon.

Carmichael, a native of Clearwater, Fla., said he hopes to succeed in NASCAR by taking advantage of the same work ethic that propelled him to the top of motorcycle racing.

"It’s definitely not going to be a ‘gimme.’ I’m not scared to work hard at it," he said. "Whatever I need to do, I’m going to do. That’s the hardest thing: Everyone wants to give up when it gets hard, and I’m definitely not going to do that. That’s where my work ethic’s going to kick in."

* * *

HERE’S A SURPRISE–Jimmie Johnson leads the driver ratings based on his past experience at Atlanta. Johnson’s rating - it is derived from a complicated mathematical formula - is 110.1 at the 1.54-mile track, followed by Carl Edwards at 105.0 and Jeff Gordon at 102.2. Significantly, Dale Earnhardt Jr. ranks fourth in driver rating with a 99.8.

* * *

STILL EARLY–The Truck Series’ Atlanta race will only be its second - it’s Sprint Cup’s fourth - meaning that the Daytona surprise winner, Providence native Timothy Peters, arrives here as the point leader.

"I’m hoping, the way the season started, this could be one of those ‘Cinderella seasons’ for us," he said.

* * *

NEW TWIST–Kyle Busch has competed in trucks five times at AMS, winning four races. Now he owns his own Toyota team. His former Truck Series owner, Billy Ballew, is fielding Toyotas here for Aric Almirola and Steve Wallace.

"This year will be a little different with my own stuff," said Busch, "but I’m looking forward to it."

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