Daily NASCAR

Hmm, and Jimmie Johnson’s Chevy is carrying what paint scheme, exactly? Kobalt Tools 500.

Where it’s a tad chilly, but, thank goodness, the skies are clear: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Hampton, Ga.

Big guns: Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Mark Martin, Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne.

Long shots: Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, Jeff Burton, Ryan Newman, Martin Truex Jr., Brian Vickers, Elliott Sadler, David Reutimann, Jamie McMurray, Scott Speed, David Ragan, Brad Keselowski, Marcos Ambrose and A.J. Allmendinger.

The hunch here: Kyle Busch.

Just the facts, please

- Though this track was reshaped and reversed (the front straight) in 1997, its distance changed only slightly: from 1.522 to 1.54 miles. Originally named Atlanta International Raceway, the name was changed to Atlanta Motor Speedway in 1990.

- The track opened in 1960. Fireball Roberts both won and started on the pole in the first race.

- The all-time leading winner is Dale Earnhardt, who won here nine times. Cale Yarborough won seven. Richard Petty and Bobby Labonte are tied with six career victories.

-The most recent driver to win here after starting on the pole was Kasey Kahne in 2006.

- Though Geoff Bodine’s track record still stands (197.478 mph, Nov. 15, 1997), Earnhardt Jr.’s pole speed (192.761) was significantly higher than last year’s (Mark Martin, 187.045). It was the fastest qualifying speed at any track since the generic car was implemented.

- Bill Elliott has won more Cup races (44) than any other driver from Georgia. Five of the wins were here.

Snappy quotes

"This has been a really, really slick race track for a long time." - Jeff Burton.

"Forty is the new 30, anyway. That’s what I’m going with." - David Reutimann, who turned 40 on March 2.

"If I thought we’re softening up the competition in some way, shape, or form, it would be foolish on our part." - Jimmie Johnson.

"We might be in the top 10, but we’re not running as well as we need to be running." - Carl Edwards.

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Relax, Ryan. You don’t have to push that red button just yet. (Photo: Getty Images)

HAMPTON, Ga. - Remain calm. All is well.

That’s the gospel being preached by those for whom the first three Sprint Cup races have not gone so well. Their words are strung together by lots of "ifs," "ands" and "buts."

They’re right, of course. The Kobalt Tools 500, at Atlanta Motor Speedway on Sunday, is only the season’s four Sprint Cup race. A year ago at this point, Bobby Labonte was 10th in points.

Here’s what gets lost by those who prematurely panic. From now through the season’s 26th race, the point system governing the strategy in Cup isn’t one designed to be in first place. First place doesn’t matter until the Chase. The regular season is about being 12th because the top 12 make the Chase.

So, in other words, the standings list Ryan Newman as being in 32nd place, 281 points behind leader Kevin Harvick. That’s a lot, even now. Kyle Busch is in 12th place. Newman’s only 150 points behind him.

"I think it’s real early to be talking about a comeback," said Newman.

Jeff Gordon is two points out of 12th. Jamie McMurray trails Busch by 13. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is 18 shy of the top 12.

Oh, my gosh. That means that, over the next 23 races, Jeff Gordon won’t make the Chase unless he can keep up a pace of gaining .087 of a point in each and every race. OK, that’s a joke, but for 32nd place Ryan Newman, the math says he can make the Chase if he gains an average of 6.6 points on 12th place, whomever happens to occupy it at any given time.

They hand out five points for leading one lap under caution.

Drivers don’t like to get off to a slow start. Their fans don’t like to see it.

However … a year ago at this point, Newman, who is now 32nd, was 33rd. He made the Chase.

"We rebounded pretty quickly last year," he recalled. "I don’t know when we were first in the top 12 after being 33rd three races in. (He reached the top 12 after the 10th race). I know there’s plenty of potential, and there’s a lot of the season left.

"The law of averages works out for everybody except Jimmie Johnson."

The winner of four straight championships is apparently above the law.

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Yes, yes, yes, there have been only three races and there are 33 more.

The available evidence, however limited, is that very little has changed in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. Jimmie Johnson’s already won twice. The surprises of Daytona have predictably faded back to obscurity. Attendance is still down, and, for more than three months, Danica Patrick isn’t going to be around to hype and magnify.

Surprises? What surprises?

Kevin Harvick won the Budweiser Shootout? He did that last year. Jamie McMurray won the Daytona 500? He won the previous restrictor-plate race, too. Johnson winning two in a row? Oh, that’s only happened seven times since the Era of Jimmie began in 2002.

Hendrick Motorsports is on top. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is at the bottom of the top. Gibbs and Roush Fenway are in merry, if so far insubstantial, pursuit. Juan Montoya hasn’t won. He and McMurray are squabbling. No one’s seen Teresa Earnhardt. Nothing kills the momentum of Daytona like the apparent apathy of Southern California.

The season has seen one legitimate surprise to date. Richard Childress Racing has improved, throughout and across the board. That’s significant.

Richard shouldn’t ever have tried to run four Chevys in the first place.

It’s time for someone to step up. Gordon tried to close the deal but didn’t have the rubber. Harvick has finished second in the last two races, which would seem more significant if Johnson hadn’t finished first in both.

Tony Stewart! Carl Edwards! Matt Kenseth! Yes, Junior, by gosh! Montoya! Kasey Kahne! Denny Hamlin! Joey Logano! Somebody! Anybody!

Nothing against Johnson and Chad Knaus, but that story’s getting old. I mean, I’ll keep writing it. I’ve got it down. Johnson, Knaus and Rick Hendrick don’t actually say the same things after each victory, but it sure seems that way sometimes.

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Kevin Harvick is the current points leader even though he’s winless. Chevvies are doing better than any driver so far, finishing at least 1-2 in all races so far. (Photo: John Clark/NASCAR This Week)

- There is no truth to the rumor that Toyota handles the electronics for Las Vegas Motor Speedway’s caution lights.

- Chip Ganassi’s got a couple feuding drivers - Juan Montoya and Jamie McMurray - on his hands, and he’s probably going to be pretty grumpy about that.

- McMurray made a good point, though, when he said not much stock should be taken in what an angry Montoya said as he climbed out of the car. As Kyle Petty said on Speed, "Juan’s … never going to hold back."

- Well, Jimmie Johnson didn’t win either of the Atlanta races last year. In fact, Dodge drivers (Kurt Busch and, at the time, Kasey Kahne) won both.

- Once again, television told us a race was sold out when it obviously wasn’t. It’s actually reached a point where a race is a sellout because many of the seats aren’t … for sale.

- The biggest race of the week might be the ratings battle between the NASCAR in Las Vegas with the Olympic hockey finals.

- Why’s Kevin Harvick the point leader, even though he’s winless? He’s finished seventh, second and second in the three races. Johnson’s finishes are 35th, first and first.

- Tony Stewart fans, take heart. He started out the 2009 season almost exactly the same way.

- Jeff Gordon’s never been a "sour grapes" kind of guy, but there have to be times when he remembers recommending Johnson’s hiring to Rick Hendrick and thinks to himself, "What was I thinking?"

- Chevrolet drivers have finished at least 1-2 in all three

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Jimmie Johnson isn’t going to win the remaining 33 races. At the moment, it just seems that way.

If this is an average year, Johnson’s going to win six. He’s going to finish second in the Sprint Cup point standings. (That’s actually his average, though the past four years have obscured that a bit.)

Where numbers are concerned, there’s always the statistical quandary. Since Johnson has won the past four titles, does that mean he’s bound to win another? Or does it mean he’s overdue for a fall? Is the law of averages set? Or does it still have some catching up to do?

What we do know, three races into the season, is that whoever’s going to beat Johnson is going to have to obey all the announcers’ clichés. He’s going to have to strap himself in tight, get up on the wheel, turn up the wick and set sail for the front.

That makes it seem so easy.

It’s not. We know that, three races into the season or not. Johnson and the state-of-the-art crew chief, Chad Knaus, are not going to get complacent.

"I don’t know if it’s just our makeup or mindset, what it is," said Johnson after career victory No. 49. "If you get off to a quick start, I think we’re both sitting here, even though we haven’t talked about it, we can’t sit still, complacency is going to kill you.

"We’re looking forward to going to Atlanta with new ideas and new things. … We don’t feel invincible, though. … I feel very good about things. But invincible? Far from that."

Johnson’s just fifth in the points. Guess what? From now through the race scheduled for Sept. 11 in Richmond, Va., he only has to be 12th. Then it starts all over. If Johnson is 12th then - and, by the way, he won’t be that far down the list - he’ll still be the favorite, and that’s the way it’s going to be until someone else comes along to prove Johnson can be beaten.

Three races into the season, it’s encouraging for point leader Kevin Harvick, but it’s no more or no less than business as usual for reigning champion Jimmie Johnson.

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