With a second-place finish in the Pocono 500 on Monday, Juan Pablo Montoya is securely in 12th place in the Chase. (Photo: Getty Images for NASCAR)

Juan Pablo Montoya is 169 points ahead of 13th place in the NASCAR Sprint Cup point standings. In terms of the Chase, still five weeks away, there is no more pertinent statistic right now than the number of points separating a driver currently inside the top 12 from the top driver out of it. For those in the top 12, it’s margin over 13th; for those outside it, it’s separation from 12th.

This is the three-race stretch that has thus far made Montoya’s bid for the Chase: Indianapolis, Pocono, Watkins Glen. All are tracks where he should by nature be adept; all are tracks for which there will be no more similar layouts.

If Montoya can win at Watkins Glen — his only previous victory occurred at the series’ other road course, Infineon Raceway, in 2007 — he will solidify and almost nail down a Chase spot. If he finishes in the top five, he will become more secure.

This is his time, and he must avoid some sort of bad break at the Glen. The four regular-season races following it — Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta and Richmond — do not favor Montoya particularly, though he won’t be at a grave disadvantage, based on past flashes of promise.

Jeff Burton, now in 17th place, trails 13th-place Greg Biffle by 262 points. Even that kind of comeback isn’t impossible; Matt Kenseth once made up almost as many points in five races to make the Chase. It’s highly unlikely, though, and almost unimaginable.

The top 12 are more defined now than at any point in the season to date. Biffle leads Kyle Busch, in 13th place, by 101 points. The next three — Brian Vickers, Clint Bowyer and David Reutimann — are tucked tighly in Busch’s draft, ranging from 104 to 121 points behind Biffle.

Kenseth, oddly enough, is only one point in front of Biffle, his teammate. Mark Martin holds down 10th place, 58 points ahead of Kenseth, 59 ahead of Biffle and 160 ahead of Kyle Busch.

The top five — Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch and Pocono winner Denny Hamlin — are secure. Odds favor Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne, Montoya, Ryan Newman and Martin.

The likelihood is that 10 or 11 drivers currently in the top 12 will remain there. It wouldn’t be surprising if the 12 remained the same, with only a wrinkle in the order here and there.

 

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